Long-Range Forecasts of Society and Culture: Four Quantitative Methods from Cultural Anthropology
Abstract
Cultural Anthropology occupies a position of strategic importance for those wishing to forecast the future. Hundreds of long-range trends in culture are known to exist going back thousands of years. These trends, along with some theoretical models fitted to past societies, seem intuitively to be extrapolatable into the future. Worldwide archaeological chronologies are increasingly available to facilitate construction of time series. Four long-range quantitative forecast methods are developed for extrapolation of: (1) universals of culture; (2) atheoretical long-range time series models; (3) directional long-range trends; and (4) theoretical models. Examples are given.
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- University of Victoria
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